The 3-Part Decision Framework for Uncertain Times

Why Good Founders Make Bad Decisions When It Matters Most

You built your business by making smart decisions. You saw opportunities others missed.

You took calculated risks that paid off.

You had the judgment to navigate from zero to where you are today.

Here's what I've observed coaching founders through challenging periods: The decisions that got you here were made with different information, different stakes, and different constraints. Now you're facing choices where:

• The information is incomplete (and always will be)

• The stakes are higher (affecting team, customers, investors)

• The timeline is compressed (markets don't wait for perfect clarity)

• The variables are multiplying (more moving parts, more dependencies)

Most founders respond to this complexity by either analysis paralysis (endlessly gathering more data) or reactive decision-making (choosing whatever feels most urgent).

Both approaches fail in uncertain times.

The Decision Paralysis Trap

📌 Before we dive into the framework, let's understand why traditional decision-making advice fails founders in uncertain times.

The "Perfect Information" Myth

Business schools teach decision-making as if you'll always have complete data. But founder decisions rarely come with spreadsheets, market research, and clear cause-and-effect relationships.

The "Gut Feeling" Fallback

When data fails, many founders default to "trusting their gut." But intuition without structure often leads to biased, emotion-driven choices.

The "Analysis Spiral" Problem

Some founders respond to uncertainty by gathering more data, running more scenarios, and seeking more opinions. But analysis has diminishing returns.

The 3-Part Decision Framework

📌 This framework has helped founders make confident choices in everything from hiring key team members to pivoting business models during market downturns. It works because it acknowledges three fundamental truths about founder decisions:

1. You'll never have complete information

2. Inaction is also a decision (usually the worst one)

3. The quality of your decision-making process matters more than any individual decision

Part 1: The Clarity Phase

Getting clear on what you're actually deciding

Before you evaluate options, you need crystal clarity on three elements:

1.1: Define the True Decision

📌 What are you actually choosing between? Often, what seems like one decision is actually multiple decisions bundled together.

Example Problem: "Should we hire a VP of Sales?"

True Decisions:

• Do we need senior sales leadership right now?

• Is a VP the right level, or do we need a director/manager first?

• Should we hire externally or promote internally?

• What's our timeline and budget for this role?

1.2: Identify Your Non-Negotiables

📌 What constraints or requirements are absolutely fixed? These become your decision boundaries.

Common Non-Negotiables:

• Budget limits that cannot be exceeded

• Timeline requirements (market windows, contract deadlines)

• Team capacity constraints

• Mission/values alignment requirements

1.3: Clarify Success Metrics

📌 How will you know if this decision worked? Define 2-3 specific, measurable outcomes you're optimizing for.

Example:

• Revenue Impact: Increase monthly recurring revenue by 25% within 6 months

• Team Impact: Reduce sales team turnover and improve close rates

• Personal Impact: Free up 10 hours per week of founder time from sales activities

Part 2: The Assessment Phase

Evaluating options with incomplete information.

📌 This is where most founders get stuck. You can't wait for perfect information, but you can't make blind choices either. Here's how to assess options systematically:

2.1: The Information Triage

Categorize information into three buckets:

2.2: The Reversibility Test

📌 Not all decisions carry the same risk. Categorize your decision based on reversibility:

Reversible Decisions (Type 1):

• Can be undone without major consequences

• Learn-as-you-go is possible

• Low switching costs

Irreversible Decisions (Type 2):

• Difficult or impossible to undo

• High switching costs or permanent consequences

• Require more careful analysis

Framework Application:

• Type 1 Decisions: Make them faster with less information. Focus on speed of learning.

• Type 2 Decisions: Invest more time in analysis, but still maintain decision timeline.

2.3: The Scenario Stress Test

📌 For each major option, pressure-test it against three scenarios:

1. Best Case Scenario: If everything goes better than expected, how does this option perform?

2. Most Likely Scenario: Based on your best judgment, how does this option perform in the expected case?

3. Worst Case Scenario: If significant challenges arise, how does this option perform? Can you survive the downside?

Part 3: The Commitment Phase

Making the decision and executing with confidence

📌 Many founders make decent decisions but execute them poorly because they second-guess themselves. The commitment phase ensures you follow through effectively.

3.1: The Decision Snapshot

📌 Before you announce or implement your decision, document:

The Decision: What exactly you're choosing to do The Reasoning: Top 3 factors that drove this choice The Timeline: When and how you'll implement The Success Metrics: How you'll measure if it's working The Review Date: When you'll assess and potentially adjust

3.2: The Communication Strategy

📌 Who needs to know about this decision, when, and how?

Internal Communication:

• Team members affected by the decision

• Key stakeholders who need context

• Anyone whose buy-in you need for execution

External Communication:

• Customers affected by changes

• Partners or vendors involved

• Investors who should be informed

Communication Framework:

1. What we decided

2. Why we made this choice

3. How it affects them

4. What they need to do (if anything)

5. When changes take effect

3.3: The Learning System

📌 Every decision is an opportunity to improve your decision-making process.

Track Decision Outcomes:

• Did the decision achieve the intended results?

• What unexpected consequences occurred?

• What information would have been most valuable?

• How could the process be improved?

Real-World Application: The Emergency Pivot Decision

📌 Let me walk you through how this framework applies to a high-stakes, time-sensitive decision many founders face.

Scenario:

Your main revenue channel just got disrupted (platform change, major customer loss, supply chain issue). You need to decide how to respond, and you have limited time and resources.

Clarity Phase:

True Decision: "Should we pivot our business model, double down on our current approach, or pursue a hybrid strategy?"

Non-Negotiables:

• Must maintain positive cash flow within 90 days

• Cannot lay off core team members

• Must stay true to our mission of helping small businesses

Success Metrics:

• Return to previous revenue levels within 6 months

• Maintain team morale and culture

• Position for stronger growth post-crisis

Assessment Phase:

Red Information:

• Current cash runway and burn rate

• Customer feedback on alternative solutions

• Team capacity for major changes

• Legal/contractual constraints

Yellow Information:

• Market research on new opportunities

• Competitive analysis of pivot options

• Financial projections for each scenario

• Advisor and mentor input

Reversibility Test:

• Pivot: Type 2 decision (hard to reverse, high commitment)

• Double Down: Type 1 decision (can adjust quickly based on results)

• Hybrid: Type 1 decision (allows for learning and iteration)

Commitment Phase:

1. Decision: Pursue hybrid strategy with 60% resources on current model optimization, 40% on new channel development.

2. Communication: All-hands meeting explaining situation, decision rationale, and everyone's role in execution.

3. Learning System: Weekly check-ins on both strategies with clear metrics and adjustment triggers.

Common Decision-Making Traps (And How to Avoid Them)

Trap 1: The Sunk Cost Fallacy

Continuing with a decision because of past investment rather than future potential.

Trap 2: Analysis Paralysis

Endless information gathering without decision-making.

Trap 3: Emotional Decision-Making

Choosing based on fear, excitement, or pressure rather than strategic thinking.

Trap 4: Decision Avoidance

Hoping the decision will resolve itself or become clearer with time.

The Advanced Decision-Making Mindset

As you apply this framework, you'll develop what I call "Founder Decision Confidence"—the ability to make good choices quickly even in uncertain situations.

Your 21-Day Decision-Making Upgrade

Week 1: Framework Familiarization

• Apply the 3-Part Framework to one low-stakes decision

• Practice the Clarity Phase on 2-3 pending decisions

• Set up a simple decision tracking system

Week 2: Process Integration

• Use the complete framework for one medium-stakes decision

• Apply Information Triage to reduce analysis time

• Practice the Reversibility Test on current options

Week 3: Advanced Application

• Apply framework to one high-stakes decision

• Implement the Learning System for past decisions

• Teach the framework to a team member or fellow founder

When Not to Use This Framework

📌 This framework works for most founder decisions, but there are exceptions:

Skip the framework for:

• Routine operational decisions (hiring junior staff, vendor selection)

• Decisions with clear legal/compliance requirements

• Emergencies requiring immediate action

• Decisions where you have complete information and clear right answers

Use a modified version for:

• Team decisions (add stakeholder input to Assessment Phase)

• Personal decisions affecting business (add personal values to Clarity Phase)

• Long-term strategic decisions (extend timeline and add more scenario planning)

Measuring Your Decision-Making Improvement

📌 Track these metrics to see if the framework is working:

Leading Indicators:

• Faster time from problem identification to decision

• Reduced stress and second-guessing during decisions

• Better stakeholder buy-in for your choices

• More systematic approach to option evaluation

Lagging Indicators:

• Better business outcomes from major decisions

• Increased confidence in uncertainty

• Stronger team trust in your leadership

• Improved ability to navigate crises

Your Next Decision

📌 The best way to master this framework is to apply it immediately.

Right now, identify:

1. One pending decision you've been avoiding or over-analyzing

2. Apply the Clarity Phase to define what you're actually choosing

3. Set a decision deadline within the next 7 days

4. Use the Assessment Phase to evaluate your options systematically

In uncertain times, your decision-making speed and quality become competitive advantages. While others are paralyzed by incomplete information, you'll be moving forward with confidence.

Your business doesn't need you to predict the future perfectly. It needs you to navigate uncertainty decisively.

Ready to Transform Your Business?

The difference between founders who scale successfully and those who burn out isn't intelligence, funding, or even product-market fit. It's the ability to have the conversations that build trust, solve problems, and accelerate growth.

These tips are just the beginning. If you're ready to build a leadership system that creates exceptional teams instead of driving them away, let's talk.

Take the Next Step

• Save this resource and refer to it later.

• Apply one new thing you learnt from this article.

• Notice the difference, and start seeing results.

Want to dive deeper into building leadership systems that scale? I help founders eliminate the bottlenecks that keep them from growing—including the communication patterns that hold back their teams.

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Kenric Tan is a Singapore-based entrepreneur and business coach helping ASEAN founders eliminate bottlenecks, improve leadership, and build scalable systems. Transform your business performance and buy back your time.

Date of Creation: 14 August 2025